The USM in 2010:
Responding
to the Challenges that Lie Ahead
Demographic Changes
Maryland will be more diverse and will experience significant growth in
its populations of college age students and seniors. The number of working age
adults will decrease, leading to significant labor shortages, particularly in
areas of high demand.
Overall Population Growth
The number of citizens residing in Maryland is projected to increase about
half a million over the next 10 years. Between 2000 and 2010, the State's
population is expected to increase from 5.2 million in 2000 to about 5.7 million
or by about 10%.
Of particular significance to the USM, the traditional college age population
(15-24 year olds) is expected to grow at an even faster pace than the general
population, increasing by about 171,000 or 27% over the next 10 years. This
group represents the first wave of the baby boom echo (children born between the
late 1970s through the early 1990s to baby boomers).
Largely as a result of the baby boom echo, the USM expects approximately
7,600 more full-time traditional undergraduate students in the next 10 years.
Under current projections, about 2,300 of those students would not be
accommodated.
Minority Population Growth
Projected growth in Maryland's minority population will account for
two-thirds of the expected increase in the number of Maryland residents. The
State's nonwhite population is expected to increase by almost 300,000 over the
next 10 years. Between 2000 and 2010, the number of traditional college-age
minorities will grow by 32% -- compared to a 24% increase in the number of
non-minorities.
65 Years and Older Population Growth
Maryland's 65 years and older population is projected to increase by almost
twice the rate of the general population over the next 10 years, growing by
113,000 or 19%. By 2010, this group will represent 12% of Maryland's total
population and will live longer, healthier, and more productive lives than their
parents did.
Regional Population Growth
More than 60% of the increase in Maryland's population will occur in five of
the State's 24 jurisdictions between 2000 and 2010. Increases in the population
in Montgomery, Prince George's, Howard, Frederick, and Anne Arundel counties
will account for 63% of the projected increase in the number of Maryland's
residents over the next 10 years.
Working Age Population Reduction (Labor Shortages)
In spite of the baby boom echo, Maryland will face labor shortages in the
coming decade. This is because the size of Maryland's baby boom echo (1.4
million) is expected to be smaller than that of the original boomers (1.7
million). This gap will result in a smaller labor pool over the next 10 years,
as the first wave of the baby boomers begins to retire and leave the labor
force. A smaller labor pool, along with an expected increase in the need for a
trained work force, is likely to exacerbate current labor shortages.
According to the Maryland Office of Planning, the number of jobs in the State
is projected to increase from 3.0 million to 3.4 million between 2000 and 2010.
However, the State's labor force participation rate (the number of individuals
in the labor force as compared to the total population of those 16 years of age
or older) is expected to decline over the same period from 71.4% to 70.5%.
Overall labor shortages will be evident throughout Maryland's economy. The
shortages will be most severe in areas of high demand, such as information
technology, education, biotechnology, and social work. According to the Maryland
Department of Labor Licensing and Regulation, jobs in the information technology
sector will be among the fastest growing in the State. And, as described in more
detail below, the demand for elementary and secondary schoolteachers is expected
to rise in response to the baby boom echo and a wave of teacher retirements.
It is also important to note that, in the "old" economy, with its
higher unemployment rates, jobs were tied to the location of industries and
people went where there were jobs. In the new economy, jobs follow skilled
people. The State's continued economic growth will therefore depend even more
strongly on its qualified labor pool.
USM Response
USM institutions will:
- Encourage aggressive growth at selected institutions and regional centers
in order to expand Maryland's qualified labor pool in response to the
State's projected labor shortages and the baby boom echo.
- Accommodate up to 7,600 more traditional college-age full-time in-state
undergraduate students over the next 10 years.
- Maintain and increase their current level of out-of-state students, since
many of these students settle in Maryland after graduation -- thus expanding
the available labor pool.
- Increase the number of graduates they produce by 25%, with particular
attention to areas with high workforce shortages.
<<Previous
Table of
Contents Next>>
